A Tale of Two Timelines: Gaza’s Future Beyond the 4-Day Deadline

The Gaza Strip is currently facing a tale of two timelines, with the divergence point set just 3-4 days from now. The path taken will be determined by Hamas’s response to President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan, and the two potential futures could not be more different.
Timeline A begins with Hamas accepting the deal. In this future, the guns fall silent. Israeli forces begin a phased withdrawal. The process of exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners commences. Critically, convoys of humanitarian aid begin to pour into the territory, bringing food, water, and medicine to a desperate population. This timeline leads to a massive, internationally-funded reconstruction effort and a new, albeit uncertain, political reality for Gaza without Hamas in charge.
Timeline B is the future where Hamas rejects the plan. This timeline begins not with silence, but with an escalation of violence. As warned by Trump, Israel would likely launch a decisive and devastating military campaign with broad international impunity. The humanitarian crisis would deepen, the death toll of over 66,000 would soar, and Gaza’s remaining infrastructure would face annihilation. This future is one of war, destruction, and a “very sad end” for the militant group.
The choice between these two futures rests solely with Hamas. The group’s leaders are not just deciding on a political agreement; they are choosing the timeline that millions of people will be forced to live in. The weight of that decision is almost unimaginable.