In a notable diplomatic sequence, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged congratulatory messages ahead of Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing. This visit comes shortly after former U.S. President Donald Trump concluded a significant summit in China. According to Chinese state media, Xi highlighted the deepening and strengthening of the strategic partnership between Russia and China, a relationship that has now reached its 30th anniversary. Putin is expected to land in China on Tuesday evening, with a meeting scheduled with Xi on Wednesday morning, as confirmed by Russian official Yuri Ushakov. Discussions will cover various aspects of bilateral relations, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
The back-to-back visits from leaders of the U.S. and Russia have drawn considerable attention, as it is uncommon in the post-Cold War era for a nation to host both leaders within such a short time frame. The West has expressed concern over China’s growing ties with Russia, especially following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China’s economic and diplomatic backing of Russia is seen as sustaining the conflict, according to Western diplomats and analysts. Xi and Putin have met more than 40 times, far exceeding Xi’s interactions with Western leaders. Trade between China and Russia has surged, with China purchasing over a quarter of Russia’s exports, including substantial amounts of crude oil, which have significantly boosted Russia’s war revenues.
Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, China has imported more than $367 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels, as per data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. These imports have bolstered China’s energy security, particularly in light of disruptions in the Middle East affecting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these developments, the war in Ukraine and Sino-Russian relations were not prominent topics during Trump’s discussions with Xi. The main bilateral meeting barely touched on the “Ukraine crisis,” with the U.S. statement omitting it entirely. The focus of the talks was largely on trade, Taiwan, and the Middle East, with Trump emphasizing China’s agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Xi expressed concerns over Taiwan, cautioning Trump about potential conflict if the issue is mishandled. Trump left Beijing undecided on a multibillion-dollar arms deal to Taiwan, a move Beijing opposes in its quest to assert control over the self-governing island. Joseph Webster of the Atlantic Council suggested that Taiwan might be an underlying theme in the Xi-Putin discussions. Webster speculates that China may seek additional fossil fuel deals with Russia to secure its energy supply in case of conflict. Increasing Russian oil pipeline capacity to China, such as through the Power of Siberia 2 project, would enhance Beijing’s energy security in a potential Taiwan-related crisis. Russia is keen on advancing this pipeline, which would add 50 billion cubic meters of capacity to their existing network.